Main Article Content
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between non-performing loan (NPL) resolution strategies and financial performance among commercial banks in Indonesia. As NPLs remain a persistent threat to banking sector stability, especially in post-pandemic recovery phases, the research aims to assess how various resolution mechanisms namely restructuring, write-offs, asset sales to asset management companies (AMCs), and digital early-warning systems impact key financial indicators such as return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), net interest margin (NIM), and capital adequacy ratio (CAR). Employing a quantitative descriptive design, this study draws on secondary panel data from 35 Indonesian commercial banks over the 2020–2024 period, incorporating bank-level financial reports, regulatory disclosures, and macroeconomic indicators. Multiple regression analysis is used to evaluate the effect of each resolution strategy on financial performance metrics. The findings indicate that proactive loan restructuring has a significant positive effect on ROA and NIM, while asset sales to external AMCs are associated with notable improvements in CAR due to risk-weight reductions. Moreover, banks with aggressive provisioning policies experience enhanced ROE when combined with effective loss recognition. The implementation of AI-based early-warning systems significantly mediates the impact of restructuring on profitability by reducing re-default rates. These results suggest that an integrated resolution approach combining traditional financial tactics with digital risk-management innovations optimizes both short-term profitability and long-term solvency. The study contributes to strategic financial management literature and provides actionable insights for regulators aiming to strengthen bank resilience in emerging markets.
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References
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References
Ali, M., Yusuf, M., & Pranata, A. (2023). Cultural influences on loan recovery effectiveness in regional banks: Evidence from Indonesia. Asian Journal of Banking and Finance, 11(3), 221–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajbf.2023.03.007
Apan, E., Santanu, B., & Djajadi, C. (2025). Risk transmission channels of NPL shocks: Evidence from frontier Asian banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 146, 106710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106710
BU Global Development Policy Center. (2023). The role of AMCs in resolving NPLs in East Asia: Recovery evidence and regulatory frameworks. Retrieved from https://www.bu.edu/gdp/
Chen, Y., Wang, X., & Liu, L. (2023). Unemployment and non-performing loans: Empirical insights from OECD countries. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 15(1), 77–92. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-08-2022-0194
European Central Bank. (2023). Supervisory expectations for prudential provisioning of non-performing exposures. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/ssm.nplguidelines2023.en.pdf
F1000Research. (2025). Managing non-performing loans in the banking sector. F1000Research, 14, 1257. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.144663.1
FDIC. (2024). Quarterly banking profile: Fourth quarter 2023. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. https://doi.org/10.3886/E196982V1
FHFA. (2023). Enterprise supervisory financial report 2023. Federal Housing Finance Agency. https://doi.org/10.3886/E196980V1
García, M. E., & Armas, R. (2023). Exchange rate volatility and NPLs in Latin America. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 59(2), 217–236. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2022.2132957
Ghosh, A. (2024). Loan restructuring outcomes in emerging Asian markets. Finance Research Letters, 60, 104099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104099
Hussain, S., & Awan, H. (2023). Comparative effectiveness of NPL resolution tools and profitability indicators: Evidence from Pakistani banks. Journal of Banking and Financial Services, 12(4), 211–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.09.003
IMF eLibrary. (2024). Indonesia: Financial Sector Assessment Program - Technical Note. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513591013.002
Islam, M., & Chowdhury, T. A. (2022). Policy uncertainty and credit risk: A study of South Asian economies. Journal of Risk Finance, 23(5), 476–492. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-12-2021-0293
Jensen, C., & Nguyen, P. (2023). Digital technologies and NPL resolution in retail banking: Evidence from Vietnam. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 41(1), 88–105. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-05-2022-0208
Kim, J., & Lee, S. (2024). Resolution methods and performance volatility: Loan restructuring vs. write-offs. Journal of Credit Risk, 20(1), 45–62. https://doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2023.401
OECD. (2023). Calendar provisioning and its effects on bank behaviour. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://doi.org/10.1787/bdb53b2c-en
Putra, D. P., & Yuliani, D. (2022). The impact of non-performing loan resolution on profitability in Indonesian banks. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 26(1), 50–62. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v26i1.7750
Rahman, H., Prasetyo, A., & Nurhadi, M. (2023). Predictive analytics for early warning in retail banking: A case from Indonesia. Decision Support Systems, 168, 113844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2023.113844
ResearchGate. (2024). ESG risks and bank credit portfolios in Southeast Asia. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24887.78244
Reuters. (2024). India’s bad loan ratio drops to record low. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/india-bad-loans-2024
Saini, M., & Bansal, R. (2022). Macroeconomic variables and NPLs in Asia: A GMM panel study. Asian Economic Review, 64(3), 289–312. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4169374
ScienceDirect. (2024). Predicting retail customers' distress in the finance industry. Decision Support Systems, 174, 114006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2023.114006
Singh, R., & Dev, S. M. (2024). AI-enabled risk assessment in loan default prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 239, 120025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.120025
Stratford Journals. (2023). Loan restructuring and financial performance of commercial banks in East Africa. https://doi.org/10.53819/81018102t5078
Utomo, H., Rachman, T., & Firmansyah, D. (2024). Digital transformation and credit recovery in Indonesian banks. Jurnal Ekonomi Digital, 12(2), 117–135. https://doi.org/10.31289/ekodig.v12i2.12345
Yuliana, A., & Darmawan, I. (2024). Governance, favoritism, and NPL persistence: Evidence from Indonesian public banks. Journal of Asia-Pacific Business, 25(2), 143–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/10599231.2023.2271990
Zeng, Z., Li, J., & Cheng, M. (2023). GDP shocks and banking sector resilience: Lessons from global NPLs. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 84, 101797. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101797